Australia's iron ore exports to China have, against the predictions of most major bank economists, held steady through the first quarter — a fact that matters more for the federal budget than almost any other single number.
Why it has held
Chinese steel demand has been buttressed by infrastructure spending that, while less visible than the property sector that preceded it, has so far been roughly sufficient to absorb the volumes Australia produces.
What could change it
A sharp escalation in trade tensions; a faster-than-expected decarbonisation of Chinese steelmaking; or a substantial increase in supply from Brazilian or African producers. None looks imminent in 2026.
